Astronomy and the Apocalypse

Ever since the first planets outside the solar system were discovered in 2003, astronomy has entered a new, and for me, probably it’s most exciting phase ever. Humans are now able to and are looking for other Earths.

Unsurprisingly most of the planets uncovered so far have been huge planets (much bigger than Jupiter) orbiting near their stars (and so having short years). This makes them rather easy to spot. So far, we’ve got about 400 or so of them. Last year however, NASA launched the Kepler space telescope with the explicit purpose of searching for extrasolar planets and specifically ones capable of supporting life. The mission’s first main report was issued two days ago, and despite not finding any Earth-like planets; what it has uncovered is spectacular.

Not only has it discovered five more planets, but also has found some very odd objects. The theory with star formation is that stars need a critical mass to start their fusion reactions and that is estimated at 75 Jupiter’s worth of hydrogen. What Kepler found was objects smaller than Jupiter orbiting stars but are nonetheless radiating light. This shouldn’t be happening, and nothing makes scientists happier than unexpected mysteries. For one thing, it’ll keep us employed longer. It also has effects on the search of Earth-like planets too.

One of the key assumptions that we had always held up to recently was that other solar systems were similar to ours. It was a fair enough assumption as all we could observe was our own one. However, the discoveries of super-hot Jupiters changed that, but they were mostly orbiting planets that were nothing like our Sun. The spanner in the works now is that these objects orbit stars not too dissimilar from our own.

Back in 1960, Frank Drake estimated using his famous equation that there were about 9 other intelligent forms of life in the galaxy. These observations change the estimations of the possibly most important parameter; how many planets there are which can support life. An updated estimate brings Drake’s 9 down to less than 2. I for one wouldn’t be surprised to find this fall further.

Aside from resolving the question as to whether we are alone or not, the much more immediate consequence has to be for our resource consumption. I will admit to being a futurist here, but unless humanity can find new planets with new resources we are facing a massive global catastrophe. We’ll survive peak oil, move on to something else, and continue the cycle of abusing the limited resources of our small planet. However, unless we either learn quickly to harness solar power efficiently on a large scale (giant solar panel in space FTW!), or build spaceships to get to other planets, we may be going the way of the dinosaur.

Of course, we could all be done for in 2029 when this asteroid called Apophis gives the Earth more than a close shave as you can see from the video. The geek in me appreciates the Stargate reference. Don't worry, it has only a mere 1 in 450 chance of hitting Earth and killing us all, and the Russians are planning on stopping it anyway. Cue Aerosmith...