Nick Who?

I have a confession. Not only have I not watched any of the UK leader's debates, I have been completely negligent in following the campaign. That being said, I wasn't at all surprised the reaction to Nick Clegg's performance in the debates so far. He had no expectations. People were expecting Brown and Cameron to be the main event, duking it out like heavyweight boxers. Well, Brown would be a heavyweight (in every sense); Cameron is a lightweight (in every sense). There was absolutely no expectation on Clegg. All he had to do was stand toe to toe with the big two and he'd be getting the Lib Dems unprecedented coverage in what the media rightly or wrongly have always boiled down to a two horse race. He didn't just do that, he managed to manipulate Cameron's "change" mantra against the Tories; positioning the Lib Dems as the real route for the protest vote.

However, I can't see this situation lasting. I think the polls will keep showing string Lib Dem performances, right up to election day, but when it comes to people actually having to tick that box, the fear of a hung parliament will push people either back into Labour's bosom or the Conservatives ice-cold death grip (I never claimed I'd be impartial). The reason for this is fundamentally that the Lib Dems cannot win the election. I've been playing with the BBC's Election Seat Calculator and it seems that the Lib Dems would need at least 44% of the vote to be able to achieve an overall majority. For comparison, Labour would need a mere 34% to be in with a chance of an overall majority. Not only that, but as the Tories' and Labour's focus now also include regular attacks on the Lib Dems and scaremongering over a hung parliament, I very much think when push comes to shove people will go back to the old guard.

What this does highlight is the scale of the gerrymandering that has gone on in the UK. It has become high impossible for a third party to be able to challenge effectively. It may not be as bad the US, but it's getting there. With a PR or List system, not only would the Lib Dems be in a much stronger position, but so would a range of smaller parties. It's times like this that I'm thankful we have a system that makes slightly more sense here.